27 Oct Why Trump and Talarico are both in Lubbock, a Republican stronghold

Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico and President Donald Trump are each holding campaign events in Lubbock on Tuesday evening, in a county that Republicans typically win by wide margins.

Trump is scheduled to speak at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center at 6 p.m. in support of Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general. Talarico’s event at the Fiesta Center starts an hour later, at 7 p.m., and a protest is planned at Tornado Memorial Park. Hundreds of cars lined the streets near the civic center Tuesday, and some people arrived as many as 12 hours before Trump’s start time, according to USA Today.

Paxton and Talarico are running to replace Sen. John Cornyn, a four-term incumbent whom Paxton beat in the May 26 Republican primary runoff.

Drew Landry, who teaches government at South Plains College as an associate professor, told USA Today the same-day stops do not necessarily make Lubbock a battleground. In his view, the two campaigns are not chasing the same result.

For Republicans, Landry said, the goal is enthusiasm. Trump is there to back Republicans up and down the ballot and to urge loyal voters to bring along friends and neighbors, including people who do not vote as regularly. Midterms can be tough for the president’s party, he said: people who oppose the president tend to be unusually motivated to vote, while some of his own supporters may care less when no presidential race tops the ballot. Landry likened the current Democratic energy to the Republican surge of 2010 under President Obama, and said Republicans know that weak turnout in West Texas, including Lubbock, would put them in serious trouble.

Democrats, Landry said, are not counting on winning Lubbock County or West Texas. They want to lose by less than in past elections. A party can win Texas without carrying every county, he said, because the combined vote across the whole state is what counts, including votes from places where it typically falls short. Trump took nearly 70% of Lubbock County’s vote in 2024, and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris took about 30%. Landry said the long-held view among Democrats was that they would lose areas like this by 25 points regardless, so there was no point in trying. Some now see it differently, he said, and believe the party risks losing the state if it skips West Texas and also underperforms in the cities. If the races are as close as expected, he said, margins will decide them.

Interest in voting is high locally. The county elections office reports that 52,610 Lubbock County residents had cast early ballots as of Oct. 26, after eight days, which beats the early totals for any general election there since at least 2006.

Talarico pointed out in a Tuesday email to supporters that both he and Trump would be on stage in Lubbock at nearly the same time. He also wrote that MAGA Inc., a Republican-aligned group, has directed more spending at him since September than at any other Democrat, including $1.1 million on Meta platforms in one day over the weekend, and asked supporters to help the campaign respond.

The outcome could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently have the majority, and Democrats would need to pick up four seats on balance to take over. If Talarico wins, a Republican-held seat flips, and if Paxton wins, it stays Republican.

Landry cautioned against reading too much into the size of the crowds. The two candidates are trying to accomplish different things, so comparing their rallies is not a fair measure of support, he said. Voters decide the race Nov. 3.